Jays still have a lot to play for
Baseball Betting Lines
09/07/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pride, spoiler status, and individual accolades. That's about all the Toronto Blue Jays have left to play for in the 2010 season. With the Jays now equipped with a 40-man roster at their disposal, youngsters can use this month as a time to showcase their talents and leave a lasting impression in the eyes of the organization.
Some things to watch over the final month of the season:
IMPACTING THE RACE
Toronto will play 16 of its remaining 25 games against teams with playoff aspirations, starting with six straight home games against the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays after defeating the AL-West leading Rangers on Monday. The Jays will also visit the Boston Red Sox for three and host the New York Yankees for another three at the end of the month. Toronto will then end the season in Minnesota for four games against the Twins at Target Field.
A strong finish by the Blue Jays (71-66) may not only have an impact on the AL playoff race, but the team could reach the 80-win plateau for the fifth time in the past six seasons. The 75-87 record the Jays finished with in 2009 was the worst the club has posted since a 67-94 campaign in 2004. The success Toronto has achieved is in large part due to a strong and surprising pitching staff that has proven its worth in the AL East.
The four mainstays of the rotation - Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow - have all strung together career years, going a combined 45-29 on the season.
Shawn Hill will at least temporality fill the void left by Morrow, who was shut down for the season due to an innings limit. Hill is slated to start the series finale against the Rangers on Thursday.
The Jays will round out the rotation with lefty Marc Rzepczynski who, despite his struggles, still remains an intriguing option for the remainder of the year after posting a 3.67 ERA over 11 starts in 2009. Rzepczynski has started consistently since mid-August and has a 1-3 record with a 6.62 ERA on the season.
GETTING ANOTHER LOOK
Catcher J.P. Arencibia and third basemen Jarrett Hoffpauir have both been recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas of the Pacific Coast League. Both players were PCL All-Stars and Arencibia's strong offensive campaign of .301-32-85 earned him PCL MVP honors.
Arencibia is in the long-term plans of the franchise but it's uncertain if that will result in a full-time gig behind the plate starting as early as next season. The current tandem of John Buck and Jose Molina are not guaranteed to be with the club in 2011, forcing management to decide on which, if any, backstop to bring back.
Buck will become a free agent at season's end and the Jays have a club option on Molina worth $1.2 million for 2011. If Toronto is confident enough with Arencibia, Molina will be the likely choice based on the attention that Buck is sure to garner on the open market.
Hoffpauir, meanwhile, will try to prove that at the age of 27 and a career spent almost entirely in the minor leagues, he's capable of filling a need at the major league level. Further, it just so happens that third base is a big question mark the Jays face heading into the 2011 season. His line of .295-16-73 for Las Vegas this year may have earned him a look if the Jays are unable to acquire an impact bat during the off-season.
MILESTONES
Jose Bautista is having a season that will entrench him in the Blue Jays' record books. The All-Star has a legitimate chance at setting the franchise's single-season home run record currently held by George Bell, who clubbed 47 in his MVP season of 1987. Bautista is sitting at 43, which ranks as the fourth- highest total in club history behind Bell, Jose Canseco (46) and Carlos Delgado (44).
The slugger has already surpassed the Jays' single-season total for walks (88) by a right-handed batter, previously held by Dave Winfield (82) in 1992. He's also in good position to set the team's all-time mark for highest slugging percentage and most extra-base hits in a season by a right-handed hitter.
Gregg, on the other hand, is having a career year despite the uncertainty that arises each time he takes to the mound. The 32-year old is likely to collect the most saves of his career and could post his best ERA and K/9 ratio as well. Gregg is two saves shy from his career-high of 32 set with the Florida Marlins in 2007 and his current ERA of 3.28 would be his lowest of any season. In addition, his 9.67 K/9 ratio is surely to pass his previous best of 9.32, also set in '07.
Gregg may not be the closer for the Jays moving forward but he has pitched effectively enough for the club to consider picking up his $4.5 million option for 2011.
With the club inching closer to reaching the next level, the Blue Jays should consider the playoffs a legitimate goal next year for the first time since 1993.
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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