Chase battle moves on to Bristol
Autoracing Betting Lines
08/17/2010 - Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Saturday, August 21. Race: IRWIN Tools Night Race. Site: Bristol Motor Speedway. Track: .533-mile oval. Start time: 7:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 500. Miles: 266.5. 2009 winner: Kyle Busch. Television: ABC. Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.
When the Sprint Cup Series comes to Bristol in August, it's always an action- packed affair on a hot summer night. And Saturday's race should be no different, as time is running out for many drivers to qualify for the championship Chase, which begins next month at New Hampshire.
With three races remaining in the regular season, 173 points separate 12th- place Clint Bowyer from 19th-place Juan Pablo Montoya. The top-12 drivers in points after the September 11 race at Richmond will make the Chase.
After winning last Sunday at Michigan, Kevin Harvick, the current points leader, became the first driver to lock down a position in the playoffs.
"Obviously, it's nice to go into this week's race and not have to worry about a Chase spot - better than anything going into Richmond without having to worry about a Chase spot," Harvick said. "The next three weeks are going to be a lot of fun, to go to three racetracks we've won at before and run well this year, to try to get more bonus points and get prepared for the Chase."
Two more drivers -- Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin -- could secure a Chase position at Bristol. Despite starting 33rd, Hamlin finished second at Michigan and moved up three spots to third in the standings. He is now 327 points ahead of Bowyer.
"In order to win the Chase [this] year, we were going to have to qualify better," Hamlin said. "Right now, we are just struggling so bad with qualifying. It takes us the entire race to get to the front. That's going to be a tough road to travel if we're going to try to win the championship."
Hamlin and Johnson lead the series with five victories each so far. However, Johnson has not won since the last weekend in June at New Hampshire, and Hamlin hasn't driven into victory lane since two months ago at Michigan.
Johnson is 294 points ahead of Bowyer in the fifth spot. It's a slight possibility that Johnson could secure his Chase spot at Bristol, but the four- time defending series champion most likely will qualify for the playoffs on Labor Day weekend at Atlanta.
In March, Johnson won at Bristol for the first time in 17 starts here. He also claimed his 50th career Cup victory.
"We ran so well there in the spring," Johnson said. "Even last year, we had great spring and fall races. The night race has always been one of my favorites and look forward to being competitive, and hopefully go back to victory lane there."
The best battle in the "Race for the Chase" right now is between Bowyer and 13th-place Mark Martin. The two are in a tight battle for the final Chase eligible spot. They have swapped the 12th and 13th positions in the last two races.
At Michigan, Bowyer finished 13th, while Martin had a disappointing 28th-place run.
"We have three races to go to get it done and, and if we continue to have runs like this, we can race our way into the Chase," Bowyer said.
Martin, who finished second to champion and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Johnson in last year's Chase, trails Bowyer by 35 points.
"I don't know what they are," Martin said of his chances making the 2010 Chase. "We'll keep digging. I don't know. Every race is a new race."
Ryan Newman, who presently holds the 14th spot, is 103 points behind Bowyer, while 15th-place Jamie McMurray trails by 105 points.
Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and David Reutimann are 16th through 18th in points, respectively. All three drivers will need strong performances at Bristol if they want to improve their chances of making the Chase. Montoya will have to do the same as well.
This will be the 100th Cup race at Bristol, with the first event running here on July 30, 1961. Jack Smith won the race, despite driving relief from Johnny Allen. The first night race at Bristol was held in August 1978. Darrell Waltrip holds the record for most wins at Bristol with 12, while Gordon and Kurt Busch lead all active drivers with five victories each here. Kurt's younger brother, Kyle, won both races at Bristol during the 2009 season. Kyle finished ninth here earlier this year.
"I look forward to going there always," Busch said. "We struggled there in the spring for some reason. All of [Joe Gibbs Racing] did. We all blew right-front tires out, and we all got into the fence, but we salvaged a decent day."
Kyle Busch, as well as Brad Keselowski and Elliott Sadler, will compete in all three of NASCAR's national touring series races at Bristol this week.
Fifty teams are on the preliminary entry list for the IRWIN Tools Night Race.
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Betting Football
NFL Football Betting OnlineIs there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.