6 on the coaching hot seat
Football Betting Lines
09/07/2010 -
It might not be a wise choice for several NFL coaches to sit down this season. Their seats are going to be awfully hot.
Winning records are advised for John Fox, Jack Del Rio, Eric Mangini, Tom Cable, Raheem Morris and Lovie Smith, or else their tenures in charge could end in early January - if not sooner.
Fox doesn't even have a contract after 2010, even though his Panthers come off an 8-8 season and he's taken them to one Super Bowl and two NFC championship games in his eight seasons in Carolina. Mangini can look over his shoulder and see Browns president Mike Holmgren, one of the best coaches of the last 20 years, running things in Cleveland. Cable works for the unpredictable Al Davis in Oakland.
Here's a six-pack of coaches feeling the heat.
- John Fox, Carolina: When the Panthers opted to let Fox coach out his contract, it became apparent the franchise is looking to make a move if 2010 is not a memorable year. Injuries have plagued the Panthers in recent seasons, and there is plenty of transition, particularly on defense. So Fox easily could be gone in January, but don't fret: Fox will get snapped up quickly.
- Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville: Three years ago, this was a team on the rise. Now, the Jaguars can't get people into the stadium, struggle late in games and appear to be far behind the other AFC South teams.
- Eric Mangini, Cleveland: The Browns won their final four games, long after they had become irrelevant in the AFC standings, then Mangini persuaded Holmgren to give him another chance. The roster doesn't look any stronger after a 5-11 season, and unless Mangini shows some versatility in demeanor and strategy, his stay in Cleveland could end with another firing.
- Tom Cable, Oakland: Longevity as Raiders coach is a myth if your name isn't Madden or Flores. At least Cable doesn't have any personal issues cluttering the headlines this year. But with Davis pegging new quarterback Jason Campbell as another Jim Plunkett, Cable needs a bunch of victories. The Raiders haven't won more than five games in a season since 2002.
- Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay: A team in flux on both sides of the ball, and Morris fired both his coordinators in 2009. The Bucs used a one-sentence statement to say he would return for a second season. If Tampa Bay finishes in the cellar again, the 34-year-old Morris likely won't get a third year.
- Lovie Smith, Chicago: The Bears have not made the playoffs since losing the Super Bowl after the 2006 season. Trading for QB Jay Cutler was supposed to juice the offense, but it didn't work. Smith's forte is defense, but the Bears allowed 375 points a year ago.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Sportsbooks to bet on football
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.